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Empire State Manufacturing Index Posts Worst Output in Nearly 3 Years
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We start our third trading week of 2023 — holiday-shortened, as the markets were closed yesterday in observance of Dr. King’s birthday — with pre-markets selling off slightly. Last week was a good one, with a favorable December CPI report seeing inflation metrics pointing (mostly) in the right direction, while jobs numbers remained decent. We also kicked off Q4 earnings season fairly decently.
This week looks a bit more challenging, at least early on. This morning, the January Empire State Manufacturing Index posted its worst monthly output since the heart of the pandemic: -32.9, well below the -7.0 expected and the unrevised -11.2 we saw the prior month. August ’22 was the last time we saw a -30 print on manufacturing in New York State, but today’s total is the lowest since May 2020.
Tomorrow we’ll be getting Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers for December, and hopefully they are similarly complimentary to an economy looking to shrink inflation without dive-bombing into recession, as we saw with its sister report, CPI, last week. Also Retail Sales — another important gauge for the overall economy — is expected ahead of Wednesday’s opening bell.
Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) missed Q4 earnings estimates by a wide margin this morning, putting up earnings of $3.32 per share versus expectations of $5.25, which itself was less than half the $10.81 per share posted in the year-ago quarter. Yet revenues, coming in at $10.59 billion for the quarter, managed to eke out a +0.71% beat over the Zacks consensus. It’s Goldman’s worst earnings miss in more than a decade.
Operating expenses were reportedly up +11% to over $8 billion in the quarter, indicating future layoffs might be in the offing, adding to the number of big-name companies issuing headcount reductions. Shares are shedding -3% ahead of today’s open, curbing what had been a robust +8.9% so far year to date, nearly double the finance sector’s gains thus far in 2023.
It’s a balancing act at this stage, early on in a new year that for many promises to bring us our first “real” recession since the pandemic, and the first longer-term economic morass since the Great Recession 14 years ago. So far, so good, in all honesty — the “soft landing” from the Fed is still in play. We shall see as time moves along; the next Fed move on interest rates is two weeks from tomorrow.
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Empire State Manufacturing Index Posts Worst Output in Nearly 3 Years
We start our third trading week of 2023 — holiday-shortened, as the markets were closed yesterday in observance of Dr. King’s birthday — with pre-markets selling off slightly. Last week was a good one, with a favorable December CPI report seeing inflation metrics pointing (mostly) in the right direction, while jobs numbers remained decent. We also kicked off Q4 earnings season fairly decently.
This week looks a bit more challenging, at least early on. This morning, the January Empire State Manufacturing Index posted its worst monthly output since the heart of the pandemic: -32.9, well below the -7.0 expected and the unrevised -11.2 we saw the prior month. August ’22 was the last time we saw a -30 print on manufacturing in New York State, but today’s total is the lowest since May 2020.
Tomorrow we’ll be getting Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers for December, and hopefully they are similarly complimentary to an economy looking to shrink inflation without dive-bombing into recession, as we saw with its sister report, CPI, last week. Also Retail Sales — another important gauge for the overall economy — is expected ahead of Wednesday’s opening bell.
Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) missed Q4 earnings estimates by a wide margin this morning, putting up earnings of $3.32 per share versus expectations of $5.25, which itself was less than half the $10.81 per share posted in the year-ago quarter. Yet revenues, coming in at $10.59 billion for the quarter, managed to eke out a +0.71% beat over the Zacks consensus. It’s Goldman’s worst earnings miss in more than a decade.
Operating expenses were reportedly up +11% to over $8 billion in the quarter, indicating future layoffs might be in the offing, adding to the number of big-name companies issuing headcount reductions. Shares are shedding -3% ahead of today’s open, curbing what had been a robust +8.9% so far year to date, nearly double the finance sector’s gains thus far in 2023.
It’s a balancing act at this stage, early on in a new year that for many promises to bring us our first “real” recession since the pandemic, and the first longer-term economic morass since the Great Recession 14 years ago. So far, so good, in all honesty — the “soft landing” from the Fed is still in play. We shall see as time moves along; the next Fed move on interest rates is two weeks from tomorrow.